Q1 Earnings & Capital Expenditure
Big Tech Earnings Signal a $630B AI Capex Supercycle
Alphabet posts 81% net income growth and Google Cloud surges 63% YoY; Microsoft’s AI revenue hits a $37B annualized run rate; Meta raises its 2026 capex forecast to $125–145B — and still drops after-hours.
Wednesday was earnings day for the three AI-heaviest names in the S&P 500, and the numbers rewrote Wall Street’s playbook in a single session. Alphabet reported Q1 net income growth of 81% year-over-year, driven by Google Cloud’s 63% revenue surge — its fastest quarter since the business was broken out as a separate segment. Shares rose roughly 7% after-hours, the company’s best post-earnings pop in three years.
Microsoft reported AI-related revenue at a $37 billion annualized run rate, up 123% year-over-year, as Copilot seat adoption accelerated across its enterprise base. The number marks the first time any single company has publicly reported AI revenue at that scale. Azure’s capacity constraints — a recurring refrain — remained the primary caveat.
Meta, meanwhile, raised the upper end of its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $145 billion, citing accelerating infrastructure demand for its Llama-powered products and internal AI tooling. Investors responded by sending the stock down more than 6% after-hours, illustrating the tension at the heart of the current earnings season: the more a company spends on AI infrastructure, the more analysts worry about near-term return on capital. Taken together, the three companies’ combined 2026 capex guidance now implies a $630–650 billion AI infrastructure buildout for Big Tech alone — a figure that has roughly doubled in eighteen months.